Most of the older folks and certainly almost all of the fund managers who come on television to now push Plug (PLUG) or Ballard Power (BLDP) , certainly don’t share the enthusiasm of an XL Fleet (XL) or Lordstown (RIDE) or, more importantly, QuantumScape (QS) . You are pretty delusional if you think that any of the radar companies are going to be triumphant any time soon if neither Nvidia (NVDA) nor Waymo or even Mobileye has had had much luck with self-driving cars.
I think one of the reasons is that we have no analogue in the market’s history where we have seen such sustained value creation. Typically between the insiders and the companies themselves there is so much selling that it overwhelms the buyers. To think that QuantunScape isn’t doing a billion dollar at-the-money offering is beyond stupid. What do they think? They can waltz to the finish line without more capital? Or how about any of these hydrogen companies? Plug Power did raise a billion dollars back in November amid a flurry of insider selling and it didn’t hurt the stock at all. How can the others not do it? Do they think that this move will last?
I guess so because the people who are buying tend not to be institutional types especially because anyone who had tried to make money say, with Ballard or Plug before failed miserably. I do have to note that Plug did get the support of Morgan Stanley which may mean something toward its levitation.
Instead I think the enthusiasm of the indefatigable wave of novice buyers – I vow to have a name for them when I get back from vacation – is equal to or superior to the disdain the S&P mimicking pros have. The pros are scared. The amateurs are having the time of their lives and think that as long as no one sells – prisoner’s dilemma? – nobody gets hurt.
I call it the dream team because it is all a dream. Do you know how many things have to work out for these companies to triumph? What’s so odd is that for them to triumph they need to raise cash and they seem reluctant to do so. Maybe the individuals are locked up and supply is, miraculously, minuscule?
No matter what, understand that, like Bitcoin there is no real value to these other than the value that the buyers give it. Older folks are mistrustful of these concentrated almost thoughtless and remote control buying.
But to the novices? This is the real market and the market that is Cisco (CSCO) or IBM (IBM) or even Microsoft (MSFT) and Apple – some wag on Twitter recently told me he sold his Apple because it didn’t move fast enough – is the old-fashioned, stultified, loser market that the ancient mariners cling to and are destined to be dinosaurs in a couple of years’ time.
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